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Case 1:12-cv-00184-JMS-LEK-MMM Document 28-12 Filed 04/23/12 Page 1 of 16

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Non-Permanent Population Extraction
for 2011 Reapportionment and
Redistricting—Addendum


Final

Office of Elections
March 2012













Prepared for:

David J. Rosenbrock, Reapportionment Project Manager
Office of Elections
802 Lehua Avenue
Pearl City, Hawaii 96782


Prepared by:

Esri
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Case 1:12-cv-00184-JMS-LEK-MMM Document 28-12 Filed 04/23/12 Page 3 of 16

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Section

Table of Contents

Page

1.0

Introduction ..................................................................................... 1-1

2.0 New Permanent Population Base and State Legislative

Redistricting Plan ............................................................................ 2-1

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4



Hawaii Supreme Court Decision .............................................................

2-1

Creating the Permanent Population Base for the New 2011
State Legislative Redistricting Plan .........................................................
2.2.1 2011 Extraction Model for the Permanent Population

Base ..............................................................................................
2.2.2 Data Sources ................................................................................
2.2.3 Revised Permanent Population Base ...........................................
2.2.4 Procedures ....................................................................................
2.2.5 Summary of Extraction Rules and Special Conditions ................

Adjusted Population Totals ......................................................................

Apportionment Using the Method of Equal Proportions .........................

2-2

2-2
2-3
2-4
2-4
2-5

2-6

2-9



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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


New Permanent Population Base and State Legislative
Redistricting Plan Following State of Hawaii Supreme
Court Ruling

1.0 Introduction

On January 4, 2012, the State of Hawaii Supreme Court invalidated the State Legislative
Reapportionment Plan adopted by the 2011 Reapportionment Commission (the
Commission). The ruling required the Commission to develop a new State Legislative
Reapportionment Plan based on Hawaii's permanent population base and to demonstrate a
good faith effort to obtain accurate counts of Hawaii's permanent population base. This
document describes the approach used to develop a new permanent population base and State
Legislative Reapportionment Plan following the Hawaii Supreme Court decision.





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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


2.0 New Permanent Population Base and State

Legislative Redistricting Plan


2.1 Hawaii Supreme Court Decision

The State Legislative Reapportionment Plan originally adopted by the Commission relied on
Census population counts of military personnel living in group quarters and on military bases
to determine the non-permanent military population to be excluded from the population base
used for State Legislative Reapportionment. Using this data in conjunction with non-
permanent student data from the Universities, the permanent population base used for State
Legislative Reapportionment excluded military personnel living in group quarters and non-
permanent students with fully geocodable addresses as the non-permanent population
(Extraction A as defined in Section 2 of the Original Report "Non-Permanent Population
Extraction for 2011 Reapportionment and Redistricting). This subset was chosen because it
allowed both the non-permanent population and its residency status and location on Census
Day to be determined with the highest degree of certainty.

This approach was taken because limitations with the non-permanent military data originally
received from the DMDC did not allow a reliable determination of the military personnel's
residence status or location on Census Day (April 1, 2010). (See Section 2 and Appendix A
of the Original Report.)

The resulting State Legislative Reapportionment Plan adopted by the Commission was
subsequently challenged on constitutional grounds. On January 4, 2012, the Hawaii Supreme
Court invalidated the Commission's adopted State Legislative Plan. The plan was ruled
constitutionally invalid under Article IV, Section 4 because contrary to the constitutional
mandate, the population base used for State Legislative Reapportionment still included non-
permanent residents.

While the constitution does not mandate mathematical exactness or precision for
reapportionment, the ruling directed the Commission to create a new State Legislative Plan
using a good faith effort to accurately determine counts of permanent residents for
reapportionment and their locations for redistricting. The ruling also directed that procedures
must follow a 2-step process prescribed in Article IV of the Hawaii constitution:


? Step 1—Apportionment Among Basic Island Units (reapportionment)

(Article IV, Section 4). "The commission shall allocate the total number of members
of each house of the state legislature . . . using total number of permanent residents in
each of the basic island units . . ."1


? Step 2—Apportionment within Basic Island Units (redistricting) (Article IV,

Section 6). "Upon the determination of the total number of members of each house of
the state legislature to which each basic island unit is entitled, the commission shall




1 Add Const Con 1978 and election Nov 7, 1978; am HB 2327 (1992) and election Nov 3, 1992



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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan



apportion the members among the districts therein and shall redraw district lines
where necessary in such manner that for each house the average number of permanent
residents per member in each district is as nearly equal to the average for the basic
island unit as practicable."2


The following sections describe the procedures used to create this new permanent population
base for reapportionment and redistricting of State Legislative Plans in accordance with the
Hawaii Supreme Court ruling.


2.2 Creating the Permanent Population Base for the New 2011 State

Legislative Redistricting Plan


The new permanent population base was created by first determining counts of permanent
residents by Basic Island Unit (BIU) for Apportionment and then by determining counts of
permanent residents in each Census Block for redistricting.

2.2.1 2011 Extraction Model for the Permanent Population Base

To obtain more accurate counts of non-permanent military and student populations, the
Commission reengaged with the DMDC and the Universities to refine and improve the data
for non-permanent populations that was previously received. If the DMDC and the
Universities could provide the required data updates, the Commission could then apply the
procedures used by previous Commissions in 1991 and 2001 (defined as the Home State
Model in Section 2 of this report). Given their use during two previous reapportionment
efforts, applying these procedures would represent a good faith effort to determine accurate
counts (for reapportionment) and locations (for redistricting) of non-permanent military and
student populations that must be extracted to create the permanent population base needed
for State Legislative Reapportionment.

Under the Home State model used by previous Reapportionment Commissions, the non-
permanent populations to be extracted were as follows:


1. Military sponsors and their dependents, if the following conditions hold:


? They declared a state other than Hawaii as their home state for income tax

purposes (Non-permanent).





? They lived in Hawaii on Census Day and were, therefore, included as residents in
the Census Count. (Only non-permanent residents originally counted as residents
by the Census can be excluded.)




2 Add Const Con 1978 and election Nov 7, 1978; am HB 2327 (1992) and election Nov 3, 1992



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2.0 New Permanent Population Base
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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft



? The military sponsor was not deployed on Census Day. (Deployed active duty

personnel are not included as residents in the Census Count and, therefore, cannot
be extracted.)

2. Students, provided the following conditions are met:


? They pay out-of-state tuition or have a permanent address outside Hawaii (Non-

permanent).





? They lived in Hawaii on Census Day and were, therefore, included as residents in
the Census Count). (Only non-permanent residents originally counted as residents
by the Census can be excluded.)


Once these non-permanent population counts are known, they must first be subtracted from
their BIU to define the non-permanent population base for reapportionment. For redistricting,
the non-permanent population will then be extracted from their Census block of residence.

2.2.2 Data Sources

Data requirements for the Home State Model include the following:


? Counts of military and student population that fit the criteria of non-permanency



? Residence location of the non-permanent population on Census Day (April 1, 2010)

with sufficient granularity to assign the non-permanent population to its BIU for
reapportionment and Census Block for Redistricting


Based on the Commissions requirement for improved data that meets the requirements
above, the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and the Universities provided the
following:


? Defense Manpower Data Center. The DMDC provided duty stations and residence

locations (ZIP+4) of non-permanent active duty personnel (those declaring a Home
State other than Hawaii) as of Census Day (April 1, 2010). The DMDC also provided
residence location (ZIP+4) of the dependents of the non-permanent active duty
personnel and other qualifying information such as deployment status, whether
personnel were located on ships, and the ship's home port. With this information, it
was possible to determine the number and location of non-permanent military
personnel and their dependents on Census Day.

? Universities. Brigham Young University (BYU), Chaminade, Hawaii Pacific

University (HPU), and University of Hawaii (UH) provided counts and full addresses
of non-permanent resident students on Census Day. With this information, it was
possible to determine the number and location of non-permanent students on Census
Day.







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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan


2.2.3 Revised Permanent Population Base

The following counts are needed to define permanent population base:


1. Apportionment Counts of Permanent Residents by BIU. This count is needed for

reapportionment of State House and Senate Seats among the four BIUs (Oahu,
Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai). To get the count, non-permanent residents are subtracted
from the Census PL 94-171 counts for each BIU.



2. Districting Counts of Permanent Residents by Census Block. This count is needed

for redistricting within each BIU. To get the count, non-permanent residents are
extracted from the PL 94-171 counts for each census block.



2.2.4 Procedures

The detailed procedures used to derive the reapportionment and districting counts are listed
in table 2-1. These procedures were presented in the Commission's public meeting
January 30, 2012, and were adopted by the Commission. The procedures were subsequently
applied to the data sources received from the DMDC and the Universities.


Procedures to Develop the Permanent Population Base

Table 2-1


STEPS Description

Reapportionment

1

2

3

4

5

6

Verify that data represents time slice on or about April 1, 2010.

Verify that data represents only non-permanent residents who likely would have been
counted by the US Census as a resident of Hawaii on April 1, 2010.

Flag as "BIU unknown" those records that contain insufficient data to determine
Apportionment Count or Districting Count. These include the following:

? Blank or incomplete records
? Records for non-Hawaii locations (mainland or foreign)

Identify records that represent dormitories or other group quarters.

? Assign to BIU and census block even if an actual address is missing.

Identify records that represent non-residential locations. These include the following:

? PO boxes, offices, care of addresses.
? For the above, assume that the residence location is on the same BIU as the

non-residential location for Apportionment Count.

? Flag as "census block unknown" for Districting Count.

Geocode all remaining addresses/Zip+4 locations to determine census block location
as follows:

? If the address can be matched to a census block, assign the record to its BIU

and census block.

? If the address cannot be matched to a census block, assign the record to its

BIU, but flag as "census block unknown" for Districting Count.



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2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan

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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


STEPS Description

Reapportionment

7

8

9

10

11

For every record, we now know Non Permanent Resident (NPR) location by the
following:

? BIU (for Apportionment Count): Either Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, Kauai, or "BIU

unknown"

? Census block (for Districting Count): Either Census Block ID or "census

block unknown"

Flag all student records that match a known military location to avoid double
counting.

? Set BIU and census block to "duplicate" and do not extract.

For every record, we now know NPR location by the following:

? BIU (for Apportionment Count): Either Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, Kauai, or "BIU

unknown" or duplicate

? Census block (for Districting Count): Census block ID, "census block

unknown," or duplicate

? Total Apportionment Count permanent resident population will equal

Districting Count total.

Extract (subtract) NPR counts for each BIU from US Census PL 94-171 BIU counts.

? Ignore "BIU unknown" or duplicate records.

Report permanent resident count for each BIU for Apportionment Count (see
Section 7.4.1 for results).

? Apportion seats among BIU using the Method of Equal Proportions (see

Section 7.4.2 for results).

Redistricting

12

Extract (subtract) NPR counts from each census block ID count (ignore unknown or
duplicate).

? If a census block has more non-permanent residents than census population,

extract full census population (set census block population to zero).

? Flag remainder as "census block unknown."

Use disaggregation islandwide to extract all "census block unknown" records.

Report permanent resident count for each census block for Districting Count.

? Draw new district boundaries to balance permanent resident population

13

14

within BIU.


2.2.5 Summary of Extraction Rules and Special Conditions

The following summarizes extraction rules and how special conditions in the data were
handled.


? Allocation of non-permanent residents to BIUs. All non-permanent residents could

be allocated to BIUs for reapportionment. No special conditions were encountered.





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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan



? Residence location could not be determined to the Census block for redistricting.

(e.g., PO boxes, care off addresses, 5-digit ZIP Code addresses, blank records)
Residents are allocated proportionally to Blocks in their BIU, using a disaggregation
model. The following proportions were used:

? 1 person extracted per 19.2 persons on Oahu
? 1 person extracted per 137.8 persons on Hawaii
? 1 person extracted per 337 persons on Maui
? 1 person extracted per 300 persons on Lanai
? 1 person extracted per 185 persons on Molokai
? 1 person extracted per 131 persons on Kauai

? Duplicate records. (Non-permanent students that are also non-permanent military) If

a non-permanent student was identified to live in a known military location, that
student was flagged to avoid duplicate extraction.







? Deployed military personnel. Military personnel identified as deployed on Census

Day were flagged and not extracted. (Deployed military personnel are not counted as
residents on Census Day and can, therefore, not be extracted.)



2.3 Adjusted Population Totals

Table 2-2 lists the adjusted population totals for each Basic Island Unit. The State House and
Senate Seats were apportioned using the Method of Equal Proportions as published by the
Census Bureau (see Section 2.4 for details).

The adjusted totals for each extraction were then incorporated into the TIGER/Line
shapefiles for the PL 94-171 Census Data to provide a new, adjusted population base for
redistricting. These updated redistricting databases were uploaded into the State of Hawaii
instance of the Online Redistricting Solution. Detailed extraction statistics showing results
from each processing step are described in table 2-3.


Table 2-2

Adjusted Population Totals

Original
Census
Counts
953,207
185,079
154,924
67,091



Extraction

106,618

1,483
380
286

Adjusted

Total

846,589
183,596
154,544
66,805

1,360,301

108,767

1,251,534

State
Senate
Seats

State
House
Seats

17
4
3
1
25

35
7
6
3
51

2-6

March 2012

Basic Island
Unit

BIU Oahu
BIU Hawaii
BIU Maui
BIU Kauai
Total




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Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft





2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan

Table 2-3

Detailed Extraction Statistics



20120213 13:41





MILITARY

STUDENTS

STEP



0

Received

1

2A1

Census Date
Deployed (not counted
by Census)
Dependent of
2A2
permanent resident
2B NPR Counted

BIU unknown

BIU known

Group Quarters

Not Group Qtrs

Not Residential

To Geocode

Geocode Good

Geocode Bad

NOTE

TOTAL

Sponsor

Dependent

TOTAL

UH

HPU

Chaminade

BYU-H

TOTAL









168,578

47,082.00

106,042.00

153,124.00

10,070.00

3,200.00

168,578

47,082.00

106,042.00

153,124.00

10,070.00

3,200.00

627.00

627.00

1,557.00

15,454.00

1,557.00

15,454.00

4,750

4,750.00

0.00

4,750.00

0.00

52,927

0.00

52,927.00

52,927.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1 - 2A1 - 2A2

110,901 42,332.00 53,115.00 95,447.00 10,070.00 3,200.00

627.00

1,557.00 15,454.00





0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2B - 3A

110,901

42,332.00

53,115.00

95,447.00

10,070.00

3,200.00

627.00

1,557.00

15,454.00



13,243

12,551.00

0.00

12,551.00

692.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

692.00

3B - 4A

97,658

29,781.00

53,115.00

82,896.00

9,378.00

3,200.00

627.00

1,557.00

14,762.00



549

0.00

0.00

0.00

455.00

54.00

13.00

27.00

549.00

4B - 5A

97,109

29,781.00

53,115.00

82,896.00

8,923.00

3,146.00

614.00

1,530.00

14,213.00





76,651

17,102.00

48,124.00

65,226.00

6,562.00

3,033.00

581.00

1,249.00

11,425.00

20,458

12,679.00

4,991.00

17,670.00

2,361.00

113.00

33.00

281.00

2,788.00

checksum 5B

6A + 6B

97,109

29,781.00

53,115.00

82,896.00

8,923.00

3,146.00

614.00

1,530.00

14,213.00

7A BIU OK

BIU unknown

BIU OK, block OK
BIU OK, block
unknown

3B

3A

110,901 42,332.00 53,115.00 95,447.00 10,070.00 3,200.00

627.00

1,557.00 15,454.00



0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

4A + 6A

89,894

29,653.00

48,124.00

77,777.00

7,254.00

3,033.00

581.00

1,249.00

12,117.00

5A + 6B

21,007

12,679.00

4,991.00

17,670.00

2,816.00

167.00

46.00

308.00

3,337.00

checksum 7A

7C + 7D

110,901

42,332.00

53,115.00

95,447.00

10,070.00

3,200.00

627.00

1,557.00

15,454.00

8A Military duplicate
8B To Extract



2,134

0.00

0.00

0.00

1,196.00

674.00

3B - 8A

108,767 42,332.00 53,115.00 95,447.00 8,874.00 2,526.00

263.00
364.00

1.00

2,134.00

1,556.00 13,320.00



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3A

3B

4A

4B

5A

5B

6A

6B



7B

7C

7D



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Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan





20120213 13:41





MILITARY

STUDENTS

STEP



NOTE

TOTAL

Sponsor

Dependent

TOTAL

UH

HPU

Chaminade

BYU-H

TOTAL

BIU Oahu

BIU Hawaii

BIU Maui

BIU Kauai









106,618

42,139.00

52,868.00

95,007.00

7,179.00

2,520.00

360.00

1,552.00

11,611.00

1,483

380

286

34.00

55.00

55.00

78.00

104.00

114.00

89.00

133.00

218.00

1,386.00

243.00

66.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

3.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

2.00

0.00

1,394.00

247.00

68.00

checksum 8B

9A +...+ 9D

108,767 42,332.00 53,115.00 95,447.00 8,874.00 2,526.00

364.00

1,556.00 13,320.00

BIU unknown

duplicate

7B

8A



2,134

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1,196.00

674.00

checksum 2B

9A+…+9F

110,901 42,332.00 53,115.00 95,447.00 10,070.00 3,200.00

263.00
627.00

0.00

1.00

0.00

2,134.00

1,557.00 15,454.00

9A

9B

9C

9D



9E

9F









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PageID #: 592

2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan

Office of Elections
Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft


2.4 Apportionment Using the Method of Equal Proportions

The Method of Equal Proportions (MOEP) as published by the Census Bureau was used to
apportion the State House and Senate Seats among the four BIUs (Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and
Kauai). The methodology is published at the following links.

Technical: http://www.census.gov/population/apportionment/about/computing.html
General: http://2010.census.gov/mediacenter/census-data/census-apportionment
-machine.php

Results are shown in tables 2-4 and 2-5.


State of Hawaii Population Base by Basic Island Unit

Table 2-4



BIU

PL 94-171

Extraction

Hawaii Pop Base

Honolulu

953,207

-106,618

Hawaii

Maui

Kauai

185,079

154,924

67,091

-1,483

-380

-286

846,589

183,596

154,544

66,805

STATE

1,360,301

-108,767

1,251,534





2
3
4
5
6
7
2
8
2
9
10
11
3
12
13
3
14
15
16

Reapportionment Using the Method of Equal Proportions

Table 2-5



Ranking of Priority Values (Starting with Seat #2, since each BIU gets one initial seat)

RGM*



BIU Pop



Priority

Seat#

BIU

Senate

BIU
House

0.707107 X
0.408248 X
0.288675 X
0.223607 X
0.182574 X
0.154303 X
0.707107 X
0.133631 X
0.707107 X
0.117851 X
0.105409 X
0.095346 X
0.408248 X
0.087039 X
0.080064 X
0.408248 X
0.074125 X
0.069007 X
0.064550 X

846589
846589
846589
846589
846589
846589
183596
846589
154544
846589
846589
846589
183596
846589
846589
154544
846589
846589
846589

= 598628.82
= 345618.51
= 244389.19
= 189303.06
= 154565.30
= 130631.52
= 129821.98
= 113130.21
= 109279.11
99771.47
=
89238.32
=
=
80719.09
74952.75
=
73686.11
=
67781.37
=
=
63092.32
62753.35
=
58420.19
=
=
54647.08

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

2
3
4
5
6
7
2
8
2
9
10
11
3
12
13
3
14
15
16

2
3
4
5
6
7
2
8
2
9
10
11
3
12
13
3
14
15
16

BIU

Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Hawaii
Honolulu

Maui

Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Hawaii
Honolulu
Honolulu

Maui

Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu



C13795-1/d

2-9

March 2012

Case 1:12-cv-00184-JMS-LEK-MMM Document 28-12 Filed 04/23/12 Page 16 of 16

PageID #: 593

Office of Elections
2.0 New Permanent Population Base
and State Legislative Redistricting Plan



Non-Permanent Population Extraction for 2011
Reapportionment and Redistricting—Addendum—Draft

Ranking of Priority Values (Starting with Seat #2, since each BIU gets one initial seat)



4
17
18
2
19
4
20
21
5
22
23
24
25
5
6
26
27
28
29
30
7
6
31
3
32
33
34
35

RGM*

0.288675
0.060634
0.057166
0.707107
0.054074
0.288675
0.051299
0.048795
0.223607
0.046524
0.044455
0.042563
0.040825
0.223607
0.182574
0.039223
0.037743
0.036370
0.035093
0.033903
0.154303
0.182574
0.032791
0.408248
0.031750
0.030773
0.029854
0.028989



x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x

BIU Pop



Priority

Seat#

BIU

Senate

BIU
House

183596
846589
846589
66805
846589
154544
846589
846589
183596
846589
846589
846589
846589
154544
183596
846589
846589
846589
846589
846589
183596
154544
846589
66805
846589
846589
846589
846589

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

52999.60
51332.00
48396.27
47238.27
45778.29
44613.01
43429.10
41309.31
41053.31
39386.88
37635.47
36033.22
34561.85
34557.09
33519.89
33205.95
31952.44
30790.14
29709.45
28702.06
28329.48
28215.74
27760.75
27273.03
26879.23
26051.98
25274.13
24541.39

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

4
17




























4
17
18
2
19
4
20
21
5
22
23
24
25
5
6
26
27
28
29
30
7
6
31
3
32
33
34
35

*RGM: Reciprocal of the geometric mean

BIU

Hawaii
Honolulu
Honolulu

Kauai

Honolulu

Maui

Honolulu
Honolulu
Hawaii
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu

Maui
Hawaii
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Hawaii
Maui

Honolulu

Kauai

Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu
Honolulu







C13795-1/d

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March 2012